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  Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European-scale context

Piniewski, M., Szczesniak, M., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mezghani, A., Hov, O. (2017): Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European-scale context. - Hydrological Processes, 31, 12, 2210-2225.
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11176

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Piniewski, Mikolaj1, Autor              
Szczesniak, M.2, Autor
Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.1, Autor              
Mezghani, A.2, Autor
Hov, O.2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: A number of extensive droughts and destructive floods have occurred in Poland in the last 25 years; hence, projections of low and high river flows are of considerable interest and importance. In the first part of this paper, projections of low and high flows in the rivers of the Vistula and the Odra basins (VOB region), for two future time horizons, are presented. Projections are based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model simulations driven by results of the EURO‐CORDEX experiment under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The VOB region covers most of Poland and parts of five neighboring countries, giving this study an international relevance. In the second part of the paper, a review of projections of low and high flows in rivers in Central and Eastern Europe is presented. Despite a substantial spread of flow projections, the main message of the modelling part is that increases of both low and high flows are dominating. The magnitude of increase of low flow is considerably higher than that of high flow. In other words, future streamflow droughts are projected to be less severe, whereas, in contrast, river floods are projected to increase, which is a challenge for flood risk reduction, water management, and climate change adaptation. There is an overall agreement of our findings for the VOB region with projections of hydrological extremes from large‐scale models forced by EURO‐CORDEX results in the European‐scale studies.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1002/hyp.11176
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7605
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
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Titel: Hydrological Processes
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 31 (12) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 2210 - 2225 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals205