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  A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system

Boers, N., Marwan, N., Barbosa, H. M. J., Kurths, J. (2017): A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system. - Scientific Reports, 7, 41489.
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41489

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 Creators:
Boers, Niklas1, Author              
Marwan, Norbert1, Author              
Barbosa, H. M. J.2, Author
Kurths, Jürgen1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/srep41489
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
eDoc: 7633
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Monsoon
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: Machine Learning
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: South America
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Development of advanced time series analysis techniques
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
 Degree: -

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Title: Scientific Reports
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: 41489 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395