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  What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies

Piniewski, M., Kidane Meresa, H., Romanowicz, R., Osuch, M., Szczesniak, M., Kardel, I., Okruszko, T., Mezghani, A., Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2017): What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies. - Acta Geophysica, 65, 4, 809-827.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0061-6

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Piniewski, Mikolaj1, Author              
Kidane Meresa, H.2, Author
Romanowicz, R.2, Author
Osuch, M.2, Author
Szczesniak, M.2, Author
Kardel, I.2, Author
Okruszko, T.2, Author
Mezghani, A.2, Author
Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s11600-017-0061-6
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7692
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
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Title: Acta Geophysica
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 65 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 809 - 827 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals6