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  Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J.-L., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Wang, T., Wu, D., Liu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhu, Z., Asseng, S. (2017): Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 114, 35, 9326-9331.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114

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Zhao, C.1, Autor
Liu, B.1, Autor
Piao, S.1, Autor
Wang, X.1, Autor
Lobell, D. B.1, Autor
Huang, Y.1, Autor
Huang, M.1, Autor
Yao, Y.1, Autor
Bassu, S.1, Autor
Ciais, P.1, Autor
Durand, J.-L.1, Autor
Elliott, J.1, Autor
Ewert, F.1, Autor
Janssens, I. A.1, Autor
Li, T.1, Autor
Lin, E.1, Autor
Liu, Q.1, Autor
Martre, P.1, Autor
Müller, Christoph2, Autor              
Peng, S.1, Autor
Peñuelas, J.1, AutorRuane, A. C.1, AutorWallach, D.1, AutorWang, T.1, AutorWu, D.1, AutorLiu, Z.1, AutorZhu, Y.1, AutorZhu, Z.1, AutorAsseng, S.1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

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 Datum: 2017
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7694
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 114 (35) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 9326 - 9331 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410