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  Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J.-L., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Wang, T., Wu, D., Liu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhu, Z., Asseng, S. (2017): Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 114, 35, 9326-9331.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114

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 Creators:
Zhao, C.1, Author
Liu, B.1, Author
Piao, S.1, Author
Wang, X.1, Author
Lobell, D. B.1, Author
Huang, Y.1, Author
Huang, M.1, Author
Yao, Y.1, Author
Bassu, S.1, Author
Ciais, P.1, Author
Durand, J.-L.1, Author
Elliott, J.1, Author
Ewert, F.1, Author
Janssens, I. A.1, Author
Li, T.1, Author
Lin, E.1, Author
Liu, Q.1, Author
Martre, P.1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Peng, S.1, Author
Peñuelas, J.1, AuthorRuane, A. C.1, AuthorWallach, D.1, AuthorWang, T.1, AuthorWu, D.1, AuthorLiu, Z.1, AuthorZhu, Y.1, AuthorZhu, Z.1, AuthorAsseng, S.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7694
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 114 (35) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 9326 - 9331 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410