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  Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate

Otto, C., Willner, S., Wenz, L., Frieler, K., Levermann, A. (2017): Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate. - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 232-269.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.001

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 Creators:
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Wenz, Leonie1, Author              
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: World markets are highly interlinked and local economies extensively rely on global supply and value chains. Consequently, local production disruptions, for instance caused by extreme weather events, are likely to induce indirect losses along supply chains with potentially global repercussions. These complex loss dynamics represent a challenge for comprehensive disaster risk assessments. Here, we introduce the numerical agent-based model acclimate designed to analyze the cascading of economic losses in the global supply network. Using national sectors as agents, we apply the model to study the global propagation of losses induced by stylized disasters. We find that indirect losses can become comparable in size to direct ones, but can be efficiently mitigated by warehousing and idle capacities. Consequently, a comprehensive risk assessment cannot focus solely on first-tier suppliers, but has to take the whole supply chain into account. To render the supply network climate-proof, national adaptation policies have to be complemented by international adaptation efforts. In that regard, our model can be employed to assess reasonable leverage points and to identify dynamic bottlenecks inaccessible to static analyses.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.001
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7727
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Model / method: Acclimate
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Working Group: Data-based analysis of climate decisions
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
 Degree: -

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Title: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 83 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 232 - 269 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journal-of-economic-dynamics-and-control
Publisher: Elsevier