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  North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

Olson, R., An, S.-I., Fan, Y., Evans, J. P., Caesar, L. (2018): North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections. - Climate Dynamics, 50, 11-12, 4171-4188.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7

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 Creators:
Olson, R.1, Author
An, S.-I.1, Author
Fan, Y.1, Author
Evans, J. P.1, Author
Caesar, Levke2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960–1999 and 2060–2099 of −4.0 Sv and −6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [−7.2, −1.2] and [−10.5, −3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7741
Research topic keyword: Oceans
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
 Degree: -

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Title: Climate Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 50 (11-12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 4171 - 4188 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals77
Publisher: Springer