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  Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: implications of agricultural management and dietary choices

Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenöder, F., Stevanović, M., Schaphoff, S., Popp, A. (2017): Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: implications of agricultural management and dietary choices. - Global Environmental Change, 47, 121-132.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.010

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Weindl, Isabelle1, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Rolinski, Susanne1, Author              
Biewald, Anne1, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              
Müller, Christoph1, Author              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Author              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Author              
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Author              
Schaphoff, Sibyll1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand- and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km3 yr−1). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19–36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26–69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.010
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7749
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Model / method: MAgPIE
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Research Software Engineering for Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 47 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 121 - 132 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193