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  Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Livermann, D., Summerhayes, C. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cornell, S. E., Crucifix, M., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Lade, S. J., Scheffer, M., Winkelmann, R., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018): Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 115, 33, 8252-8259.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

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Steffen, W.1, Autor
Rockström, J.1, Autor
Richardson, K.1, Autor
Lenton, T. M.1, Autor
Folke, C.1, Autor
Livermann, D.1, Autor
Summerhayes, C. P.1, Autor
Barnosky, A. D.1, Autor
Cornell, S. E.1, Autor
Crucifix, M.1, Autor
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Autor              
Fetzer, I.1, Autor
Lade, S. J.1, Autor
Scheffer, M.1, Autor
Winkelmann, Ricarda2, Autor              
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim2, Autor              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

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 Datum: 2018
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 7846
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Decarbonization  
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 115 (33) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 8252 - 8259 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410