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  Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries

Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Popp, A. (2018): Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries. - Nature Climate Change, 8, 2, 151-155.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0064-y

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Heck, Vera1, Author              
Gerten, Dieter1, Author              
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Under the Paris Agreement, 195 nations have committed to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to strive to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (ref. 1). It is noted that this requires "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of the century"1. This either calls for zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or a balance between positive and negative emissions (NE)2,3. Roadmaps and socio-economic scenarios compatible with a 2 °C or 1.5 °C goal depend upon NE via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance remaining GHG emissions4,5,6,7. However, large-scale deployment of BECCS would imply significant impacts on many Earth system components besides atmospheric CO2 concentrations8,9. Here we explore the feasibility of NE via BECCS from dedicated plantations and potential trade-offs with planetary boundaries (PBs)10,11 for multiple socio-economic pathways. We show that while large-scale BECCS is intended to lower the pressure on the PB for climate change, it would most likely steer the Earth system closer to the PB for freshwater use and lead to further transgression of the PBs for land-system change, biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0064-y
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7857
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: LPJmL
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 151 - 155 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414