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  The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Alcoforado de Moraes, M. M. G., Biewald, A., Guimarães Carneiro, A. C., Souza da Silva, G. N., Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H. (2018): The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil. - Regional Environmental Change, 18, 7, 1943-1955.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1291-0

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Alcoforado de Moraes, M. M. G.1, Author
Biewald, Anne2, Author              
Guimarães Carneiro, A. C.1, Author
Souza da Silva, G. N.1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1291-0
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
eDoc: 7955
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: South America
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Regional Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 18 (7) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1943 - 1955 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals425