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  Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

Mengel, M., Nauels, A., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F. (2018): Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. - Nature Communications, 9, 601.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22400_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Mengel, Matthias1, Author              
Nauels, A.2, Author
Rogelj, J.2, Author
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 8063
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 9 Sequence Number: 601 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354