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  Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Anderies, J. M., Beer, C., Cornell, S. E., Gasser, T., Norberg, J., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Steffen, W. (2018): Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing. - Earth System Dynamics, 9, 2, 507-523.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018

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 Creators:
Lade, S. J.1, Author
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Author              
Fetzer, I.1, Author
Anderies, J. M.1, Author
Beer, C.1, Author
Cornell, S. E.1, Author
Gasser, T.1, Author
Norberg, J.1, Author
Richardson, K.1, Author
Rockström, J.1, Author
Steffen, W.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Changes to climate–carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate–carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate–carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate–carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate–carbon feedback; and concentration–carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate–carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide "workbenches" for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-507-2018
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 8111
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 9 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 507 - 523 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282