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Abstract:
Costs of adaptation in the developing world have been mostly equated to those of climate proofing infrastructure under the assumption of unconstrained knowledge and planning capacities. To correct this, we introduce a cost-scaling methodology estimating sectoral investments to enhance the knowledge and planning capacities of countries based on an empirical collection of 385 climate-related projects. We estimate that circa 9.2 billion USD are required for financing knowledge and planning activities in developing countries in 2015. The agricultural and water sectors demand the higher investments – 3.8 and 3.5 billion USD, respectively. Average investments between 2015 and 2050 are projected at 7 billion USD per year – the largest fraction of which (4 billion) in Africa. Investments in this study were found to constitute approximately 40%, 20–60% and 5–15% of previous cost estimates to climate-proof infrastructure in the agricultural, water, and coastal sectors, respectively. The effort to finance the knowledge and planning capacities in developing countries is therefore not marginal relative to the costs of adapting infrastructure. The findings underline the potential of using empirical collections of climate-related projects for adaptation cost assessments as complementary to process and economic models.
