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  Yield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century

Schauberger, B., Ben-Ari, T., Makowski, D., Kato, T., Kato, H., Ciais, P. (2018): Yield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century. - Scientific Reports, 8, 16865.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35351-1

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Schauberger, Bernhard1, Author              
Ben-Ari, T.2, Author
Makowski, D.2, Author
Kato, T.2, Author
Kato, H.2, Author
Ciais, P.2, Author
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: France is a major crop producer, with a production share of approx. 20% within the European Union. Yet, a discussion has recently started whether French yields are stagnating. While for wheat previous results are unanimously pointing to recent stagnation, there is contradictory evidence for maize and few to no results for other crops. Here we analyse a data set with more than 120,000 yield observations from 1900 to 2016 for ten crops (barley, durum and soft wheat, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugar beet, sunflower and wine) in the 96 mainland French départements (NUTS3 administrative division). We dissect the evolution of yield trends over time and space, analyse yield variation and evaluate whether growth of yields has stalled in recent years. Yields have, on average across crops, multiplied four-fold over the course of the 20th century. While absolute yield variability has increased, the variation relative to the mean has halved – mean yields have increased faster than their variability. But growth of yields has stagnated since the 1990’s for winter wheat, barley, oats, durum wheat, sunflower and wine on at least 25% of their areas. Reaching yield potentials is unlikely as a cause for stagnation. Maize, in contrast, shows no evidence for stagnation.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-35351-1
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8264
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
 Degree: -

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Title: Scientific Reports
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 Sequence Number: 16865 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395