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  State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C. P. O., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., Vliet, M. T. H. v., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., Wit, A. d., Eddy, T. D., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Müller, C., Müller Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T. A. M., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L. (2019): State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. - Nature Communications, 10, 1005.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

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 Urheber:
Schewe, Jacob1, Autor              
Gosling, S. N.2, Autor
Reyer, Christopher P. O.1, Autor              
Zhao, F.2, Autor
Ciais, P.2, Autor
Elliott, J.2, Autor
Francois, L.2, Autor
Huber, V.2, Autor
Lotze, H. K.2, Autor
Seneviratne, S. I.2, Autor
Vliet, M. T. H. van2, Autor
Vautard, R.2, Autor
Wada, Y.2, Autor
Breuer, L.2, Autor
Büchner, Matthias1, Autor              
Carozza, D. A.2, Autor
Chang, J.2, Autor
Coll, M.2, Autor
Deryng, D.2, Autor
Wit, A. de2, Autor
Eddy, T. D.2, AutorFolberth, C.2, AutorFrieler, Katja1, Autor              Friend, A. D.2, AutorGerten, Dieter1, Autor              Gudmundsson, L.2, AutorHanasaki, N.2, AutorIto, A.2, AutorKhabarov, N.2, AutorKim, H.2, AutorLawrence, P.2, AutorMorfopoulos, C.2, AutorMüller, Christoph1, Autor              Müller Schmied, H.2, AutorOrth, R.2, AutorOstberg, Sebastian1, Autor              Pokhrel, Y.2, AutorPugh, T. A. M.2, AutorSakurai, G.2, AutorSatoh, Y.2, AutorSchmid, E.2, AutorStacke, T.2, AutorSteenbeek, J.2, AutorSteinkamp, J.2, AutorTang, Q.2, AutorTian, H.2, AutorTittensor, D. P.2, AutorVolkholz, Jan1, Autor              Wang, X.2, AutorWarszawski, Lila1, Autor               mehr..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

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 Datum: 2019
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 8398
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Energy
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 10 Artikelnummer: 1005 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354