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  Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges

du Pont, Y. R., Meinshausen, M. (2018): Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges. - Nature Communications, 9, 4810.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07223-9

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du Pont, Y. R.1, Author
Meinshausen, Malte2, Author              
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of 2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country’s effort-sharing approach to aspirational levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thresholds, respectively. This new hybrid allocation reconciles the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement with its top-down warming thresholds and provides a temperature metric to assess NDCs. When taken as benchmark by other countries, the NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China lead to 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C warmings, respectively.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07223-9
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8416
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Model / method: MAGICC
Regional keyword: Global
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 9 Sequence Number: 4810 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354