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  Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region

Didovets, I., Krysanova, V., Bürger, G., Snizhko, S., Balabukh, V., Bronstert, A. (2019): Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region. - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 22, 100590.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002

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Didovets, Iulii1, Autor              
Krysanova, Valentina1, Autor              
Bürger, G.2, Autor
Snizhko, S.2, Autor
Balabukh, V.2, Autor
Bronstert, A.2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Study region Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071–2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981–2010). New hydrological insights for the region The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.

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 Datum: 2019
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
eDoc: 8470
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Europe
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
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Titel: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 22 Artikelnummer: 100590 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/161216