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  A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Bodirsky, B. L., Bosetti, V., Callen, J., Després, J., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Koopman, J. F. L., Meijl, H. v., Ochi, Y., Popp, A., Schmitz, A., Takahashi, K., Vuuren, D. v. (2019): A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. - Nature Sustainability, 2, 5, 386-396.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

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 Creators:
Fujimori, S.1, Author
Hasegawa, T.1, Author
Krey, V.1, Author
Riahi, K.1, Author
Bertram, Christoph2, Author              
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon2, Author              
Bosetti, V.1, Author
Callen, J.1, Author
Després, J.1, Author
Doelman, J.1, Author
Drouet, L.1, Author
Emmerling, J.1, Author
Frank, S.1, Author
Fricko, O.1, Author
Havlik, P.1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Koopman, J. F. L.1, Author
Meijl, H. van1, Author
Ochi, Y.1, Author
Popp, A.1, Author
Schmitz, A.1, AuthorTakahashi, K.1, AuthorVuuren, D. van1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
eDoc: 8502
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Energy Systems
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 2 (5) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 386 - 396 Identifier: Other: Springer Nature
Other: 2398-9629
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability