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  Key determinants of global land-use projections

Stehfest, E., Zeist, W.-J.-v., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D'Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fujimori, S., Humpenöder, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Meijl, H. v., Wiebe, K. (2019): Key determinants of global land-use projections. - Nature Communications, 10, 2166.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w

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Stehfest, E.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Zeist, W.-J. van1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Valin, H.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Havlik, P.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Popp, Alexander2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Kyle, P.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Tabeau, A.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Mason-D'Croz, D.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Hasegawa, T.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Calvin, K.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Doelman, J. C.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fujimori, S.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Humpenöder, Florian2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Lotze-Campen, Hermann2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Meijl, H. van1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Wiebe, K.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2019
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD2 - Climate Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_EDOC???: 8506
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Land Use and Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Land-Use Management
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Nature Communications
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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