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  Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Radchuk, V., Reed, T., Teplitsky, C., Pol, M. v. d., Charmantier, A., Hassall, C., Adamík, P., Adriaensen, F., Ahola, M. P., Arcese, P., Avilés, J. M., Balbontin, J., Berg, K. S., Borras, A., Burthe, S., Clobert, J., Dehnhard, N., Lope, F. d., Dhondt, A. A., Dingemanse, N. J., Doi, H., Eeva, T., Fickel, J., Filella, I., Fossøy, F., Goodenough, A. E., Hall, S. J. G., Hansson, B., Harris, M., Hasselquist, D., Hickler, T., Joshi, J., Kharouba, H., Martínez, J. G., Mihoub, J.-B., Mills, J. A., Molina-Morales, M., Moksnes, A., Ozgul, A., Parejo, D., Pilard, P., Poisbleau, M., Rousset, F., Rödel, M.-O., Scott, D., Senar, J. C., Stefanescu, C., Stokke, B. G., Kusano, T., Tarka, M., Tarwater, C. E., Thonicke, K., Thorley, J., Wilting, A., Tryjanowski, P., Merilä, J., Sheldon, B. C., Møller, A. P., Matthysen, E., Janzen, F., Dobson, F. S., Visser, M. E., Beissinger, S. R., Courtiol, A., Kramer-Schadt, S. (2019): Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. - Nature Communications, 10, 3109.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

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Radchuk, V.1, Author
Reed, T.1, Author
Teplitsky, C.1, Author
Pol, M. van de1, Author
Charmantier, A.1, Author
Hassall, C.1, Author
Adamík, P.1, Author
Adriaensen, F.1, Author
Ahola, M. P.1, Author
Arcese, P.1, Author
Avilés, J. M.1, Author
Balbontin, J.1, Author
Berg, K. S.1, Author
Borras, A.1, Author
Burthe, S.1, Author
Clobert, J.1, Author
Dehnhard, N.1, Author
Lope, F. de1, Author
Dhondt, A. A.1, Author
Dingemanse, N. J.1, Author
Doi, H.1, AuthorEeva, T.1, AuthorFickel, J.1, AuthorFilella, I.1, AuthorFossøy, F.1, AuthorGoodenough, A. E.1, AuthorHall, S. J. G.1, AuthorHansson, B.1, AuthorHarris, M.1, AuthorHasselquist, D.1, AuthorHickler, T.1, AuthorJoshi, J.1, AuthorKharouba, H.1, AuthorMartínez, J. G.1, AuthorMihoub, J.-B.1, AuthorMills, J. A.1, AuthorMolina-Morales, M.1, AuthorMoksnes, A.1, AuthorOzgul, A.1, AuthorParejo, D.1, AuthorPilard, P.1, AuthorPoisbleau, M.1, AuthorRousset, F.1, AuthorRödel, M.-O.1, AuthorScott, D.1, AuthorSenar, J. C.1, AuthorStefanescu, C.1, AuthorStokke, B. G.1, AuthorKusano, T.1, AuthorTarka, M.1, AuthorTarwater, C. E.1, AuthorThonicke, Kirsten2, Author              Thorley, J.1, AuthorWilting, A.1, AuthorTryjanowski, P.1, AuthorMerilä, J.1, AuthorSheldon, B. C.1, AuthorMøller, A. P.1, AuthorMatthysen, E.1, AuthorJanzen, F.1, AuthorDobson, F. S.1, AuthorVisser, M. E.1, AuthorBeissinger, S. R.1, AuthorCourtiol, A.1, AuthorKramer-Schadt, S.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
eDoc: 8519
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 Sequence Number: 3109 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354