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  To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Kipling, R. P., Topp, C. F. E., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., Cortignani, R., del Prado, A., Dono, G., Faverdin, P., Graux, A.-I., Hutchings, N. J., Lauwers, L., Özkan Gülzari, S., Reidsma, P., Rolinski, S., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Sandars, D. L., Sandor, R., Schönhart, M., Seddaiu, G., Middelkoop, J. v., Shrestha, S., Weindl, I., Eory, V. (2019): To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers? - Environmental Modelling and Software, 120, 104492.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492

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 Creators:
Kipling, R. P.1, Author
Topp, C. F. E.1, Author
Bannink, A.1, Author
Bartley, D. J.1, Author
Blanco-Penedo, I.1, Author
Cortignani, R.1, Author
del Prado, A.1, Author
Dono, G.1, Author
Faverdin, P.1, Author
Graux, A.-I.1, Author
Hutchings, N. J.1, Author
Lauwers, L.1, Author
Özkan Gülzari, S.1, Author
Reidsma, P.1, Author
Rolinski, Susanne2, Author              
Ruiz-Ramos, M.1, Author
Sandars, D. L.1, Author
Sandor, R.1, Author
Schönhart, M.1, Author
Seddaiu, G.1, Author
Middelkoop, J. van1, AuthorShrestha, S.1, AuthorWeindl, I.1, AuthorEory, V.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
eDoc: 8621
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Modelling and Software
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 120 Sequence Number: 104492 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals127