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  Quantifying water scarcity in northern China within the context of climatic and societal changes and south‐to‐north water diversion

Yin, Y., Wang, L., Wang, Z., Tang, Q., Piao, S., Chen, D., Xia, J., Conradt, T., Liu, J., Wada, Y., Cai, X., Xie, Z., Duan, Q., Li, X., Zhou, J., Zhang, J. (2020): Quantifying water scarcity in northern China within the context of climatic and societal changes and south‐to‐north water diversion. - Earth's Future, 8, 8, e2020EF001492.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001492

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 Creators:
Yin, Yuanyuan1, Author
Wang, Lei1, Author
Wang, Zhongjing1, Author
Tang, Qiuhong1, Author
Piao, Shilong1, Author
Chen, Deliang1, Author
Xia, Jun1, Author
Conradt, Tobias2, Author              
Liu, Junguo1, Author
Wada, Yoshihide1, Author
Cai, Ximing1, Author
Xie, Zhenghui1, Author
Duan, Qingyun1, Author
Li, Xiuping1, Author
Zhou, Jing1, Author
Zhang, Jianyun1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: With the increasing pressure from population growth and economic development, northern China (NC) faces a grand challenge of water scarcity, which can be further exacerbated by climatic and societal changes. The South‐to‐North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to mitigate the water scarcity in NC. However, few studies have quantified the impact of the SNWD on water scarcity within the context of climatic and societal changes and its potential effects on economic and agricultural food in the region. We used water supply stress index (WaSSI) to quantify water scarcity within the context of environmental change in NC, and developed a method to estimate the economic and agricultural impacts of the SNWD. Focuses were put on alleviating the water supply shortage and economic and agricultural benefits for the water‐receiving NC. We find that societal changes, especially economic growth, are the major contributors to water scarcity in NC during 2009–2099. To completely mitigate the water scarcity of NC, at least an additional water supply of 13 billion m3/year (comparable to the annual diversion water by SNWD Central Route) will be necessary. Although SNWD alone cannot provide the full solution to northern China's water shortage in next few decades, it can significantly alleviate the water supply stress in NC (particularly Beijing), considerably increasing the agricultural production (more than 115 Teracalories/year) and bringing economic benefits (more than 51 billion RMB/year) through supplying industrial and domestic water use. Additionally, the transfer project could have impacts on the ecological environment in the exporting regions.

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 Dates: 2020-07-262020-07-262020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001492
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Asia
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth's Future
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 (8) Sequence Number: e2020EF001492 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)