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  The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., Winkelmann, R. (2020): The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. - Nature, 585, 7826, 538-544.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5

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 Creators:
Garbe, Julius1, Author              
Albrecht, Torsten1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: SPP 1158
 Abstract: More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata2 we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model3,4,5, that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet’s temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica’s long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-08-022020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
MDB-ID: yes - 2985
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Research topic keyword: Global Commons
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: PISM-PIK
Model / method: Open Source Software
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 585 (7826) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 538 - 544 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353
Publisher: Nature