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  Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin?

Mishra, V., Shah, H., Rivas López, M. d. R., Lobanova, A., Krysanova, V. (2020): Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin? - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1187-1205.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02847-7

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24402 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24402_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Mishra, Vimal1, Author
Shah, Harsh1, Author
Rivas López, María del Rocío2, Author              
Lobanova, Anastasia2, Author              
Krysanova, Valentina2, Author              
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Understanding the projected changes in the mean and high flows remains a significant challenge due to uncertainty arising from global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models. Moreover, the calibration approaches used for hydrological models can influence the climate change impact assessment. We use the combination of three hydrological models, four global climate models, and two RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) to analyze the projected changes in mean flow, high flow, and the frequency of high flow under the projected future climate in the Godavari River basin (GRB) until the gauge Tekra. The two evaluation approaches: a simple approach (TASK A) based on the calibration and validation at a single streamflow gauge station and a comprehensive approach (TASK B) based on multi-variable and multisite calibration and validation and trend analysis were employed to evaluate the hydrological models. The differences between the projected changes in mean and high flows calculated using models after TASK A and TASK B were estimated. Our results show that the differences can be up to 10–13% in mean annual flow and high flow, and up to 40% in high flow frequency. The comprehensively evaluated hydrological models were chosen for impact assessment, and they project increases in mean and high flows, and the frequency of high flow at all four gauge stations in the GRB. The projected increases are higher under RCP 8.5 and in the End century (2071–2100). Our results demonstrate the importance of the comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models in advance of climate change impact assessment.

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 Dates: 2020-08-182020-12-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: pending
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02847-7
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Asia
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 163 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1187 - 1205 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80