Deutsch
 
Datenschutzhinweis Impressum
  DetailsucheBrowse

Datensatz

DATENSATZ AKTIONENEXPORT
  How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change

Krysanova, V., Zaherpour, J., Didovets, I., Gosling, S. N., Gerten, D., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tang, Q., Wada, Y. (2020): How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change. - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1353-1377.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0

Item is

Dateien

einblenden: Dateien
ausblenden: Dateien
:
24405oa.pdf (Verlagsversion), 2MB
Name:
24405oa.pdf
Beschreibung:
-
Sichtbarkeit:
Öffentlich
MIME-Typ / Prüfsumme:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technische Metadaten:
Copyright Datum:
-
Copyright Info:
-
Lizenz:
-

Externe Referenzen

einblenden:

Urheber

einblenden:
ausblenden:
 Urheber:
Krysanova, Valentina1, Autor              
Zaherpour, J.2, Autor
Didovets, Iulii1, Autor              
Gosling, S. N.2, Autor
Gerten, Dieter1, Autor              
Hanasaki, N.2, Autor
Müller Schmied, H.2, Autor
Pokhrel, Y.2, Autor
Satoh, Y.2, Autor
Tang, Q.2, Autor
Wada, Y.2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Inhalt

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Schlagwörter: -
 Zusammenfassung: Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.

Details

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Sprache(n):
 Datum: 2020-08-182020-10-122020-12-12
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: pending
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: LPJmL
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

einblenden:

Entscheidung

einblenden:

Projektinformation

einblenden:

Quelle 1

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Titel: Climatic Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 163 (3) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1353 - 1377 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80