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  How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change

Krysanova, V., Zaherpour, J., Didovets, I., Gosling, S. N., Gerten, D., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tang, Q., Wada, Y. (2020): How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change. - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1353-1377.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24405 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24405_4
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              
Zaherpour, J.2, Author
Didovets, Iulii1, Author              
Gosling, S. N.2, Author
Gerten, Dieter1, Author              
Hanasaki, N.2, Author
Müller Schmied, H.2, Author
Pokhrel, Y.2, Author
Satoh, Y.2, Author
Tang, Q.2, Author
Wada, Y.2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.

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 Dates: 2020-08-182020-10-122020-12-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: pending
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: LPJmL
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 163 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1353 - 1377 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80