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  Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation

Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Gleixner, S., Gornott, C. (2020): Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation. - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, 108154.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108154

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24506 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24506_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Laudien, Rahel1, Author           
Schauberger, Bernhard1, Author           
Gleixner, Stephanie1, Author           
Gornott, Christoph1, Author           
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Climate change poses a substantial risk to agricultural production in Peru. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are currently developed and outline Peru's mitigation actions and adaptation plans to climate change in various sectors. To support the implementation of adaptation measures in the agricultural sector, information on weather-related risks for crop production and the effectiveness of adaptation options on the local scale are needed. We assess weather influences on starchy maize yields on different scales in Peru based on statistical crop models and a machine learning algorithm. The models explain 91% of yield variability (55% based on the cross-validation) on the regional scale. On the local scale, weather-related yield variation can be explained in some areas, but to a lower extent. Based on these models, we assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures which increase water availability to protect against negative impacts from dry weather conditions. The results show that a higher water availability of 77mm in the growing season would have regionally different effects, ranging from an increase of 20% to a decrease of 17% in maize yields. This large range underlines the importance of a local assessment of adaptation options. With this example, we illustrate how a statistical approach can support a risk-informed selection of adaptation measures at the local scale as suggested in Peru's NDC implementation plan.

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 Dates: 2020-09-202020
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108154
MDB-ID: yes - 3061
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
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Title: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 295 Sequence Number: 108154 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals15