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  How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement

Sælen, H., Hovi, J., Sprinz, D. F., Underdal, A. (2020): How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement. - Environmental Science and Policy, 108, 121-132.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24522 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24522_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Sælen, Håkon1, Author
Hovi, Jon1, Author
Sprinz, Detlef F.2, Author              
Underdal, Arild1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2°C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others’ promises and contributions. Second, while the 2°C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreement's institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011
MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: FutureLab - Social Metabolism and Impacts
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Global Commons
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Social Metabolism and Impacts
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Science and Policy
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 108 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 121 - 132 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals129