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  Reducing uncertainties of future global soil carbon responses to climate and land use change with emergent constraints

Xu, W., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Guenet, B., Viovy, N., Ito, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Tain, H., Shi, H., Frieler, K., Forrest, M., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Hickler, T. (2020): Reducing uncertainties of future global soil carbon responses to climate and land use change with emergent constraints. - Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34, 10, e2020GB006589.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006589

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Xu, Wenfang1, Autor
Chang, Jinfeng1, Autor
Ciais, Philippe1, Autor
Guenet, Bertrand1, Autor
Viovy, Nicholas1, Autor
Ito, Akihito1, Autor
Reyer, Christopher P. O.2, Autor              
Tain, Hanqing1, Autor
Shi, Hao1, Autor
Frieler, Katja2, Autor              
Forrest, Matthew1, Autor
Ostberg, Sebastian2, Autor              
Schaphoff, Sibyll2, Autor              
Hickler, Thomas1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Soil organic carbon changes (ΔSOC) are regulated by climate and land use change. Here, we analyze regional and global ΔSOC from 1861 to 2099 based on five terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b. The TBMs were driven by harmonized gridded land use change and bias‐adjusted climate forcing data from different general circulation models (GCMs) for climate scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. Between 2005 and the end of this century, we estimated an increase of SOC for two scenarios with large uncertainty, which is dominated by differences between TBMs. We present a new emergent constraint approach to constrain future modeled ΔSOC over natural vegetation from RCP 6.0 simulations using recent observed trends of net primary productivity as a proxy of litter inputs to soil pools. Our results showed that the uncertainties in constrained ΔSOC can be reduced in comparison with the original model ensemble, but constrained values of ΔSOC depend on the choice of a GCM and climate regions. For the reduction of the SOC density in areas where cropland expanded (Δsoccropland expansion) over natural vegetation as a result of land use change, the constrained Δsoccropland expansion still features large uncertainties due to uncertain observed data. Our proposed emergent constraint approach appears to be valuable to reduce uncertainty on SOC projections, but it is limited here by the small number of models (five) and by the uncertainty in the observational data. Applications to larger ensembles from Earth System Models should be tested for the future.

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 Datum: 2020-10-082020-10-232020-10-23
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006589
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 34 (10) Artikelnummer: e2020GB006589 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals191
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)