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  Consistency in vulnerability assessments of wheat to climate change - A district-level analysis in India

Dhamija, V., Shukla, R., Gornott, C., Joshi, P. K. (2020): Consistency in vulnerability assessments of wheat to climate change - A district-level analysis in India. - Sustainability, 12, 19, 8256.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198256

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 Creators:
Dhamija, Vanshika1, Author
Shukla, Roopam2, Author              
Gornott, Christoph2, Author              
Joshi, P. K.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: In India, a reduction in wheat crop yield would lead to a widespread impact on food security. In particular, the most vulnerable people are severely exposed to food insecurity. This study estimates the climate change vulnerability of wheat crops with respect to heterogeneities in time, space, and weighting methods. The study uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability while using composite indices of 27 indicators to explain exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used climate projections under current (1975–2005) conditions and two future (2021–2050) Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate exposure to climatic risks. Consistency across three weighting methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Equal Weights (EWs)) was evaluated. Results of the vulnerability profile suggest high vulnerability of the wheat crop in northern and central India. In particular, the districts Unnao, Sirsa, Hardoi, and Bathinda show high vulnerability and high consistency across current and future climate scenarios. In total, 84% of the districts show more than 75% consistency in the current climate, and 83% and 68% of the districts show more than 75% consistency for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the three weighting methods, respectively. By using different weighting methods, it was possible to quantify “method uncertainty” in vulnerability assessment and enhance robustness in identifying most vulnerable regions. Finally, we emphasize the importance of communicating uncertainties, both in data and methods in vulnerability research, to effectively guide adaptation planning. The results of this study would serve as the basis for designing climate impacts adjusted adaptation measures for policy interventions. View Full-Text

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 Dates: 2020-10-042020-10-072020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.3390/su12198256
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Asia
Model / method: Open Source Software
 Degree: -

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Title: Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, p3, oa, in Scopus nur von 2009-2013
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 (19) Sequence Number: 8256 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1507021
Publisher: MDPI