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  Sensitivity of ice flow to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry

Zeitz, M., Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R. (2020): Sensitivity of ice flow to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry. - The Cryosphere, 14, 10, 3537-3550.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020

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Zeitz, Maria1, Autor              
Levermann, Anders1, Autor              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.

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 Datum: 2020-09-092020-11-15
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
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 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: PISM-PIK
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Ice
DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
MDB-ID: pending
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Titel: The Cryosphere
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 14 (10) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 3537 - 3550 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140507
Publisher: Copernicus