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  Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Piniewski, M., Marcinkowski, P., O’Keeffe, J., Szcześniak, M., Nieróbca, A., Kozyra, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Okruszko, T. (2020): Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland. - Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 140, 1-2, 691-708.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03106-6

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25218 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25218_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Piniewski, Mikolaj1, Author              
Marcinkowski, Paweł2, Author
O’Keeffe, Joanna2, Author
Szcześniak, Mateusz2, Author
Nieróbca, Anna2, Author
Kozyra, Jerzy2, Author
Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.1, Author              
Okruszko, Tomasz2, Author
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical crop-weather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon.

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 Dates: 2020-02-012020
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03106-6
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PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
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Title: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 140 (1-2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 691 - 708 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1708291