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  The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

Rosier, S. H. R., Reese, R., Donges, J. F., De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R. (2021): The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. - The Cryosphere, 15, 3, 1501-1516.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25352 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25352_5
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Rosier, Sebastian H. R.1, Author
Reese, Ronja2, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Author              
De Rydt, Jan1, Author
Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar1, Author
Winkelmann, Ricarda2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to this is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice-internal dynamics can drive a self-amplifying retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the WAIS. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators robustly detect critical slowing for the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 °C from the steady state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-02-112021-03-25
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Model / method: Machine Learning
 Degree: -

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Title: The Cryosphere
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1501 - 1516 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140507
Publisher: Copernicus