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  Long-term impacts of tropical cyclones and fluvial floods on economic growth – Empirical evidence on transmission channels at different levels of development

Krichene, H., Geiger, T., Frieler, K., Willner, S., Sauer, I., Otto, C. (2021): Long-term impacts of tropical cyclones and fluvial floods on economic growth – Empirical evidence on transmission channels at different levels of development. - World Development, 144, 105475.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105475

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25516 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25516_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Krichene, Hazem1, Author              
Geiger, Tobias1, Author              
Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Sauer, Inga1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: Tropical cyclones, Fluvial floods, Economic growth losses, Level of development, Transmission channels
 Abstract: While the short-term economic impacts of extreme weather events are well documented, little is known about their impacts and transmission channels on economic growth in the long run. Using panel data regressions and national shares of people exposed to tropical cyclones and fluvial floods as exogenous predictors, we find output growth losses from severe tropical cyclones and fluvial floods to accumulate to −6.5% and −5.0% over 15 years, respectively. We further observe a strongly non-linear increase of these losses with disaster intensity. To understand how the observed impacts depend on the countries’ development level, we implement a country-specific regression framework. While we find evidence that higher development can prevent economic growth losses from fluvial floods, this is not the case for tropical cyclones. Further, we systematically study the economic and non-economic transmission channels through which these events impact on economic growth in the long run. We find that rising household consumption and government expenditure are the main growth-loss mitigating channels, whereas rising investment is the main growth-loss amplifying channel in the period 1971–2010.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-03-132021-04-132021-04-13
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105475
MDB-ID: pending
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
 Degree: -

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Title: World Development
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 144 Sequence Number: 105475 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/world-development
Publisher: Elsevier