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  Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change

Herzfeld, T., Heinke, J., Rolinski, S., Müller, C. (2021): Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change. - Earth System Dynamics, 12, 4, 1037-1055.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021

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 Creators:
Herzfeld, Tobias1, Author              
Heinke, Jens1, Author              
Rolinski, Susanne1, Author              
Müller, Christoph1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, which is in particular needed to achieve the targets proposed in the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in atmospheric temperature to well below 2 °C. We here analyze the historical evolution and future development of cropland SOC using the global process-based biophysical model LPJmL, which was recently extended by a detailed representation of tillage practices and residues management (version 5.0–tillage2). We find that model results for historical global estimates for SOC stocks are at the upper end of available literature, with ~2650 Pg C of SOC stored globally in the year 2018, of which ~170 Pg C are stored in cropland soils. In future projections, assuming no further changes in current cropland patterns and under four different management assumptions with two different climate forcings, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5, results suggest that agricultural SOC stocks decline in all scenarios, as the decomposition of SOC outweighs the increase of carbon inputs into the soil from altered management practices. Different climate-change scenarios, as well as assumptions on tillage management, play a minor role in explaining differences in SOC stocks. The choice of tillage practice explains between 0.2 % and 1.3 % of total cropland SOC stock change in the year 2100. Future dynamics in cropland SOC are most strongly controlled by residue management, whether residues are left on the field or harvested. We find that on current cropland, global cropland SOC stocks decline until the end of the century by only 1.0 % to 1.4 % if residue-retention management systems are generally applied and by 26.7 % to 27.3 % in case of residues harvest. For different climatic regions, increases in cropland SOC can only be found for tropical dry, warm temperate moist, and warm temperate dry regions in management systems that retain residues.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-09-232021-10-222021
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 19
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021
MDB-ID: yes - 3235
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: LPJmL
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1037 - 1055 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282
Publisher: Copernicus