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  Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change

Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Leonard, M., Liu, J., Müller Schmied, H., Papadimitriou, L., Pokhrel, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Satoh, Y., Thiery, W., Westra, S., Zhang, X., Zhao, F. (2021): Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change. - Science, 371, 6534, 1159-1162.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996

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Gudmundsson, Lukas1, Author
Boulange, Julien1, Author
Do, Hong X.1, Author
Gosling, Simon N.1, Author
Grillakis, Manolis G.1, Author
Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.1, Author
Leonard, Michael1, Author
Liu, Junguo1, Author
Müller Schmied, Hannes1, Author
Papadimitriou, Lamprini1, Author
Pokhrel, Yadu1, Author
Seneviratne, Sonia I.1, Author
Satoh, Yusuke1, Author
Thiery, Wim1, Author
Westra, Seth1, Author
Zhang, Xuebin1, Author
Zhao, Fang2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.

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 Dates: 2021-03
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/science.aba3996
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
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Title: Science
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 371 (6534) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1159 - 1162 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals442
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)