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  Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest

Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Donges, J. F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Winkelmann, R. (2022): Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 119, 32, e2120777119.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119

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 Creators:
Wunderling, Nico1, Author              
Staal, Arie2, Author
Sakschewski, Boris1, Author              
Hirota, Marina2, Author
Tuinenburg, Obbe A.2, Author
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Barbosa, Henrique M. J.2, Author
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest–climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-07-062022-08-022022-08-09
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2120777119
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: yes - 3488
Regional keyword: South America
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 119 (32) Sequence Number: e2120777119 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences (NAS)