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  A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

van de Wal, R. S. W., Nicholls, R. J., Behar, D., McInnes, K., Stammer, D., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., DeConto, R., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Haasnoot, M., Haigh, I. D., Hinkel, J., Horton, B., James, T. S., Jenkins, A., LeCozannet, G., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Marzeion, B., Pattyn, F., Payne, T., Pfeffer, T., Price, S. F., Serroussi, H., Sun, S., Veatch, W., White, K. (2022): A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners. - Earth's Future, 10, 11, e2022EF002751.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751

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 Creators:
van de Wal, R. S. W.1, Author
Nicholls, R. J.1, Author
Behar, D.1, Author
McInnes, K.1, Author
Stammer, D.1, Author
Lowe, J. A.1, Author
Church, J. A.1, Author
DeConto, R.1, Author
Fettweis, X.1, Author
Goelzer, H.1, Author
Haasnoot, M.1, Author
Haigh, I. D.1, Author
Hinkel, J.1, Author
Horton, B.1, Author
James, T. S.1, Author
Jenkins, A.1, Author
LeCozannet, G.1, Author
Levermann, Anders2, Author              
Lipscomb, W. H.1, Author
Marzeion, B.1, Author
Pattyn, F.1, AuthorPayne, T.1, AuthorPfeffer, T.1, AuthorPrice, S. F.1, AuthorSerroussi, H.1, AuthorSun, S.1, AuthorVeatch, W.1, AuthorWhite, K.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-09-302022-10-222022-11
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 24
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Model / method: PISM-PIK
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth's Future
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 (11) Sequence Number: e2022EF002751 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: Wiley
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)