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  Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Rose, S. K., Popp, A., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Weyant, J., Wise, M., van Vuuren, D., Brunelle, T., Cui, R. Y., Daioglou, V., Frank, S., Hasegawa, T., Humpenöder, F., Kato, E., Sands, R. D., Sano, F., Tsutsui, J., Doelman, J., Muratori, M., Prudhomme, R., Wada, K., Yamamoto, H. (2022): Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system. - Climatic Change, 172, 3.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03336-9

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Rose, Steven K.1, Autor
Popp, Alexander2, Autor              
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Autor
Havlik, Petr1, Autor
Weyant, John1, Autor
Wise, Marshall1, Autor
van Vuuren, Detlef1, Autor
Brunelle, Thierry1, Autor
Cui, Ryna Yiyun1, Autor
Daioglou, Vassilis1, Autor
Frank, Stefan1, Autor
Hasegawa, Tomoko1, Autor
Humpenöder, Florian2, Autor              
Kato, Etsushi1, Autor
Sands, Ronald D.1, Autor
Sano, Fuminori1, Autor
Tsutsui, Junichi1, Autor
Doelman, Jonathan1, Autor
Muratori, Matteo1, Autor
Prudhomme, Rémi1, Autor
Wada, Kenichi1, AutorYamamoto, Hiromi1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2020-10-122022-03-062022-05-032022-05-03
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 27
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03336-9
MDB-ID: yes - 3388
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Model / method: MAgPIE
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Climatic Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 172 Artikelnummer: 3 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80
Publisher: Springer Nature