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  Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N., Fragkos, P., Huppmann, D., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Keppo, I., Kriegler, E., Krisztin, T., Marangoni, G., Pye, S., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., Trutnevyte, E., van Vuuren, D., Wagner, F. (2022): Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights. - Nature Climate Change, 12, 5, 428-435.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x

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Guivarch, Céline1, Autor
Le Gallic, Thomas1, Autor
Bauer, Nicolas2, Autor              
Fragkos, Panagiotis1, Autor
Huppmann, Daniel1, Autor
Jaxa-Rozen, Marc1, Autor
Keppo, Ilkka1, Autor
Kriegler, Elmar2, Autor              
Krisztin, Tamás1, Autor
Marangoni, Giacomo1, Autor
Pye, Steve1, Autor
Riahi, Keywan1, Autor
Schaeffer, Roberto1, Autor
Tavoni, Massimo1, Autor
Trutnevyte, Evelina1, Autor
van Vuuren, Detlef1, Autor
Wagner, Fabian1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-04-142022-03-142022-05-092022-05
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 8
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Climate Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 12 (5) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 428 - 435 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414
Publisher: Nature