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  Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years

Beusch, L., Nauels, A., Gudmundsson, L., Gütschow, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S. I. (2022): Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years. - Communications Earth and Environment, 3, 7.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6

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 Creators:
Beusch, Lea1, Author
Nauels, Alexander1, Author
Gudmundsson, Lukas1, Author
Gütschow, Johannes2, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1, Author
Seneviratne, Sonia I.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators. We find that under current pledges, their cumulated 1991–2030 emissions are expected to result in extreme hot years every second year by 2030 in twice as many countries (92%) as without their influence (46%). If all world nations shared the same fossil CO2 per capita emissions as projected for the US from 2016–2030, global warming in 2030 would be 0.4 °C higher than under actual current pledges, and 75% of all countries would exceed 2 °C of regional warming instead of 11%. Our results highlight the responsibility of individual emitters in driving regional climate change and provide additional angles for the climate policy discourse.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-04-222021-11-112022-01-062022-01-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 7
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Regional keyword: Global
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Communications Earth and Environment
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 Sequence Number: 7 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/communications-earth-environment
Publisher: Nature