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  Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity

Orlov, A., De Hertog, S., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Luo, F., Manola, I., Thiery, W., Lejeune, Q., Pongratz, J., Humpenöder, F., Windisch, M. G., Nath, S., Popp, A., Schleussner, C.-F. (2023): Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity. - Earth's Future, 11, 3, e2022EF002909.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002909

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Earth s Future - 2023 - Orlov - Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity-4.pdf (Publisher version), 10MB
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Earth s Future - 2023 - Orlov - Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity-4.pdf
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 Creators:
Orlov, Anton1, Author
De Hertog, Steven1, Author
Havermann, Felix1, Author
Guo, Suqi1, Author
Luo, Fei1, Author
Manola, Iris1, Author
Thiery, Wim1, Author
Lejeune, Quentin1, Author
Pongratz, Julia1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Windisch, Michael G.2, Author              
Nath, Shruti1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non-locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). However, these effects have never been quantified globally using a multi-model setup. Building on results from stylized sensitivity experiments of (a) cropland expansion, (b) irrigation expansion, and (c) afforestation conducted by three fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the local as well as non-local effects on heat stress and labor capacity. We found that LCLMC leads to substantial changes in temperature; however, the concomitant changes in humidity could largely diminish the combined impact on moist heat. Moreover, cropland expansion and afforestation cause inconsistent responses of day- and night-time temperature, which has strong implications for labor capacity. Across the ESMs, the results are mixed in terms of sign and magnitude. Overall, LCLMC result in non-negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low-latitude regions during the warmest seasons. In some locations, the changes of monthly average labor capacity, which are induced by the local effects of individual LCLMC options, could reach −14 and +15 percentage points. Thus, LCLMC-induced impacts on heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing LCLMC-related policies to ensure sustainable development.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-05-232023-03-072023-03-232023-03-23
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 20
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: Land use
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
Regional keyword: global
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
MDB-ID: No data to archive
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002909
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth's Future
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (3) Sequence Number: e2022EF002909 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: Wiley
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)