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  A novel framework for direct multistep prediction in complex systems

Wu, T., An, F., Gao, X., Zhong, W., Kurths, J. (2023): A novel framework for direct multistep prediction in complex systems. - Nonlinear Dynamics, 111, 9289-9304.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-023-08360-7

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Wu, Tao1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
An, Feng2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Gao, Xiangyun2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Zhong, Weiqiong2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Kurths, Jürgen1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Multistep prediction is an open challenge in many real-world systems for a long time. Despite the advantages of previous approaches, e.g., step-by-step iteration, they have some shortcomings, such as accumulated errors, high cost, and low interpretation. To this end, Gaussian process regression and delay embedding are used to create a combination framework, namely spatial–temporal mapping (STM). Delay embedding is employed to reconstruct an isomorphic dynamical structure with the original system through a single time series, which provides the fundamental architecture for multistep predictions (interpretation). Gaussian process regression is used to achieve predictions by identifying a mapping between the reconstructed dynamical structure and the original structure. This combination framework outputs multistep ahead predictions in a single step (low cost). We test the feasibility of STM for both model systems, including the 3-species ecology system, the Lorenz chaotic system, and the Rossler chaotic system, and several real-world systems, involving energy, finance, life science, and climate. STM framework outperforms traditional iterative approaches and has the potential for many other real-world systems.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2023-03-042023-05
 ???ViewItemFull_lblPublicationStatus???: ???ViewItem_lblPublicationState_published-in-print???
 ???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: 16
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1007/s11071-023-08360-7
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No data to archive
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD4 - Complexity Science
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD4 - Complexity Science
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Complex Networks
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Nonlinear Dynamics
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Tipping Elements
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: Machine Learning
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: Nonlinear Data Analysis
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Nonlinear Dynamics
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourcePubInfo???: ???lbl_noEntry???
???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceVolumeIssue???: 111 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceSequenceNo???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceStartEndPage???: 9289 - 9304 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceIdentifier???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_CONE???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nonlinear-dynamics
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PUBLISHER???: Springer