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  Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions

Kuhla, K., Willner, S., Otto, C., Levermann, A. (2023): Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions. - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151, 104663.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104663

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 Creators:
Kuhla, Kilian1, Author              
Willner, Sven1, Author              
Otto, Christian1, Author              
Levermann, Anders1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Shipping accidents and environmental disasters pose a challenge to the reliability of maritime supply chains. Since international trade intensifies without a significant diversification of the supply routes the risk of transportation perturbations caused by extreme events like tropical cyclones may increase conceivably. In this study we model the regional and global economic repercussions of typhoon-induced short-term transport disruptions of West Pacific trading routes. Using a numerical agent-based shock model with myopic local optimization, we compute the response of more than 7,000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million trade and supply relations. We compute that transportation perturbations, due to West Pacific typhoons between 2000–2020, may cause local oversupply and scarcity situations as well as the associated regional price changes. In our model economic agents respond to these price signals and temporary supply bottlenecks by rescheduling and increasing their demand. As a consequence from our numerical analysis, we find annual median export volume to increase in all trade blocs due to a decrease of export prices, but substantial regional differences emerge. Further we show that resilience of export to typhoon-induced perturbations increase in China, ASEAN, East Asia, and Europe within the first 16 years of this century. We trace this back to a rise of the inter-connectivity of these trade blocs to their foreign trade partners.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-04-042023-04-242023-04-252023-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104663
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Economics
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Weather
Model / method: Acclimate
MDB-ID: yes - 3446
 Degree: -

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Project name : CLIC
Grant ID : 01LA1817C
Funding program : -
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : QUIDIC
Grant ID : 01LP1907A
Funding program : -
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : SLICE
Grant ID : 01LA1829A
Funding program : -
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : RECEIPT
Grant ID : 820712
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)
Project name : -
Grant ID : W911NF1910013
Funding program : World Modelers program
Funding organization : Defense Advanced Research Project Agency

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Title: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 151 Sequence Number: 104663 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journal-of-economic-dynamics-and-control
Publisher: Elsevier