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  Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum

Bi, S., Bauer, N., Jewell, J. (2023): Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum. - Nature Climate Change, 13, 130-139.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7335236 (Supplementary material)
Description:
Data and analysis scripts used in the Nature Climate Change article entitled "Coal-Exit Alliance Must Confront Freeriding Sectors to Propel Paris-Aligned Momentum".

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 Creators:
Bi, Stephen1, Author              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Author              
Jewell, Jessica2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA’s path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-01-272022-11-242023-02-062023-02
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 19
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Energy Systems
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Economics
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: REMIND
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 13 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 130 - 139 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414