Deutsch
 
Datenschutzhinweis Impressum
  DetailsucheBrowse

Datensatz

 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Performance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties

Yang, C., Ceglar, A., Menz, C., Martins, J., Fraga, H., Santos, J. A. (2023): Performance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties. - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 331, 109342.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109342

Item is

Dateien

einblenden: Dateien
ausblenden: Dateien
:
Recent-results-from-an-ecohydrological-study-of-for_2023_Agricultural-and-Fo.pdf (Verlagsversion), 14MB
Name:
Recent-results-from-an-ecohydrological-study-of-for_2023_Agricultural-and-Fo.pdf
Beschreibung:
-
Sichtbarkeit:
Öffentlich
MIME-Typ / Prüfsumme:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technische Metadaten:
Copyright Datum:
-
Copyright Info:
-
Lizenz:
-

Externe Referenzen

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Beschreibung:
-

Urheber

einblenden:
ausblenden:
 Urheber:
Yang, Chenyao1, Autor
Ceglar, Andrej1, Autor
Menz, Christoph2, Autor              
Martins, Joana1, Autor
Fraga, Helder1, Autor
Santos, João A.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

Inhalt

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Schlagwörter: Mediterranean climate, Seasonal climate forecast, Phenology forecast, Phenology modelling, Forecast performance, Climate risk
 Zusammenfassung: Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.

Details

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-08-102023-01-222023-01-282023-03-15
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 15
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109342
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Regional keyword: Europe
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Research topic keyword: Weather
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
MDB-ID: yes - 3494
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

Veranstaltung

einblenden:

Entscheidung

einblenden:

Projektinformation

einblenden:

Quelle 1

einblenden:
ausblenden:
Titel: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 331 Artikelnummer: 109342 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals15
Publisher: Elsevier