ausblenden:
Schlagwörter:
climate change
adaptation
climate impacts
climate risk
agriculture
maize
cacao
cassava
livestock
Cameroon
biophysical
modelling
cost-benefit
analysis
gender
Zusammenfassung:
Cameroon has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which
is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by
the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks
and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this
study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough
evaluation of three potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision
makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Cameroon. The impact
assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two
emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), assessing land cover changes,
modelling and comparing future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (maize,
cassava and cocoa) and an assessment of grassland productivity under future climate
conditions. Further the study outlines gender-related challenges and opportunities
in national adaptation planning. Based on the projected climate change impacts on
agricultural production, three different adaptation strategies ((1) Improved varieties,
(2) Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and (3) Agroforestry), that were
suggested and selected by different national stakeholders, were analysed regarding
their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-) effectiveness and suitability for local
conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literaturebased
assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder
workshops.
The results show, that by 2050 mean annual temperature is projected to increase by
1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario and 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario
compared to 2004. Some uncertainty exists for annual precipitation projections, the
model ensemble projects an increase in precipitation, which is stronger under the
high emissions scenario while also projecting an increase in precipitation intensity.
Projected impacts of climate change on agricultural yields vary between regions and
show partly opposing trends. Maize yields will decrease in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone
by up to 84 % by 2090 under SSP3-RCP7.0 and over 30 % of yield losses for cassava are
projected for AEZ I and II by the end of the century under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario.
Significant positive cassava yield effects are projected in the (Guinean) High Savannah
Zone, High Plateau (Western Highlands), and humid Mono- and Bimodal (Rain)forest
Zones, respectively, under SSP1-RCP2.6. Crop models show that the areas suitable for
maize and cocoa will decrease in Cameroon, especially under SSP3-RCP7.0, while the
suitability for cassava will remain relatively stable. Regarding the livestock sector, it
seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change
scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0.
All three adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, to have a high
potential for risk mitigation and to entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can
be highly recommended resulting in very positive effects for smallholder farmers, and
the environment. Improving seeds has a high potential to improve livelihoods, but this
adaptation strategy is also support-intensive. Lastly, agroforestry has a potential to
reduce the impact of climate risks on cocoa production, but future climatic suitability
needs to be considered. The findings of this study can help to inform national and
local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order
to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder
farmers against a changing climate in Cameroon.
