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  Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R. E. V., Avila Ortega, D. I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J. F., Österblom, H., Olsson, P., Nyström, M., Lade, S. J., Hahn, T., Folke, C., Peterson, G. D., & Crépin, A.-S. (2024). Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences, 379(1893):. doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0261.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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søgaard-jørgensen-et-al-2023-evolution-of-the-polycrisis-anthropocene-traps-that-challenge-global-sustainability.pdf (出版社版), 718KB
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søgaard-jørgensen-et-al-2023-evolution-of-the-polycrisis-anthropocene-traps-that-challenge-global-sustainability.pdf
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 作成者:
Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter1, 著者
Jansen, Raf E. V.1, 著者
Avila Ortega, Daniel I.1, 著者
Wang-Erlandsson, Lan2, 著者              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, 著者              
Österblom, Henrik1, 著者
Olsson, Per1, 著者
Nyström, Magnus1, 著者
Lade, Steven J.1, 著者
Hahn, Thomas1, 著者
Folke, Carl1, 著者
Peterson, Garry D.1, 著者
Crépin, Anne-Sophie1, 著者
所属:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 要旨: The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.

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言語: eng - 英語
 日付: 2023-11-012023-11-132024-01-01
 出版の状態: Finally published
 ページ: 17
 出版情報: -
 目次: -
 査読: 査読あり
 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0261
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Health
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
Research topic keyword: Security & Migration
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Qualitative Methods
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
 学位: -

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出版物 1

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出版物名: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences
種別: 学術雑誌, SCI, Scopus, p3
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出版社, 出版地: -
ページ: - 巻号: 379 (1893) 通巻号: 20220261 開始・終了ページ: - 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals384
Publisher: The Royal Society