Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global 
sustainability

Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter; Jansen, Raf E. V.; Avila Ortega, Daniel I.; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Donges, Jonathan Friedemann; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per; Nyström, Magnus; Lade, Steven J.; Hahn, Thomas; Folke, Carl; Peterson, Garry D.; Crépin, Anne-Sophie

doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0261

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Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

Authors

Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter
External Organizations;

Jansen, Raf E. V.
External Organizations;

Avila Ortega, Daniel I.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/lan.wangerlandsson

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges, Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Österblom, Henrik
External Organizations;

Olsson, Per
External Organizations;

Nyström, Magnus
External Organizations;

Lade, Steven J.
External Organizations;

Hahn, Thomas
External Organizations;

Folke, Carl
External Organizations;

Peterson, Garry D.
External Organizations;

Crépin, Anne-Sophie
External Organizations;

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søgaard-jørgensen-et-al-2023-evolution-of-the-polycrisis-anthropocene-traps-that-challenge-global-sustainability.pdf
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引用

Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R. E. V., Avila Ortega, D. I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J. F., Österblom, H., Olsson, P., Nyström, M., Lade, S. J., Hahn, T., Folke, C., Peterson, G. D., & Crépin, A.-S. (2024). Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences, 379(1893):. doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0261.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29011

要旨

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.