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  Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures

Kotz, M., Kuik, F., Lis, E., Nickel, C. (2024): Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures. - Communications Earth and Environment, 5, 116.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29135 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29135_4
Genre: Journal Article

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https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10183679 (Supplementary material)
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 Creators:
Kotz, Maximilian1, Author              
Kuik, Friderike 2, Author
Lis, Eliza2, Author
Nickel, Christiane2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Climate impacts on economic productivity indicate that climate change may threaten price stability. Here we apply fixed-effects regressions to over 27,000 observations of monthly consumer price indices worldwide to quantify the impacts of climate conditions on inflation. Higher temperatures increase food and headline inflation persistently over 12 months in both higher- and lower-income countries. Effects vary across seasons and regions depending on climatic norms, with further impacts from daily temperature variability and extreme precipitation. Evaluating these results under temperature increases projected for 2035 implies upwards pressures on food and headline inflation of 0.92-3.23 and 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per-year respectively on average globally (uncertainty range across emission scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications). Pressures are largest at low latitudes and show strong seasonality at high latitudes, peaking in summer. Finally, the 2022 extreme summer heat increased food inflation in Europe by 0.43-0.93 percentage-points which warming projected for 2035 would amplify by 30-50%.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-03-272023-12-092024-03-212024-03-21
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 13
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Data-based analysis of climate decisions
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Weather
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x
 Degree: -

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Project name : Facilitating a Just Transition
Grant ID : 81290341
Funding program : -
Funding organization : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany and Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
Project name : Impact of intensified weather extremes on Europe's economy (ImpactEE)
Grant ID : 93350
Funding program : Europe and Global Challenges
Funding organization : VolkswagenStiftung
Project name : -
Grant ID : -
Funding program : -
Funding organization : European Central Bank

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Title: Communications Earth and Environment
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
 Creator(s):
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 5 Sequence Number: 116 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/communications-earth-environment
Publisher: Nature